04 janvier 2006

Argentinian politics...

So Argentina has paid its debt to the IMF. Some 9,530 million US$ directly out of the country's financial reserves. Most analysts here consider it was a positive move which will bring more independence for the government. That way, Kirchner & co. should be able to improve the economic policies as they want without interference... although a few consider it changes little and the country could continue to pay while keeping its independance and use that money better by investing in the countries development. All in all, economic stability and low inflation seem to be a concern for the government.
There is also an important economic growth and a growth in the tax money collected by the government (some 40% in relation to the same period last year). So there is considerable optimism and a positive economic climate. Over 50% of people in a survey believe that 2006 will be even better than 2005, which was already a good year... Of course some 20% say it will be worse, but there are always some pessimistic (as well as "some" left behind...).
At the same time the new anti-american governments in South America got a new ally, Bolivia. Things go well to Kirchner who is now said might be a candidate for the next ellections in 2007.

However there's some disappointment here in Argentina over the fact that the new Bolivian president has not included the country in his first world tour (and what a tour that will be, including Europe, Asia and Cuba, Venezuela and Brasil!). Well, will that become the new southern American front? from Cuba to Buenos Aires?... happens what may, I bet Fidel couldn't have dreamt of a better scenario a couple of years ago... so, let's see what will happen...

So... back to argentinian economics... is growth coming from foreign investment, exports, internal consumption?... most likely a bit of all but strongly from internal consumption... and it could be better, had the southern american gone further in building the Mercosur... so the next couple of years will tell whether the economy will continue to grow in a stable way.

But let's hope the present situation is not "fake" or "artificial" as a taxi driver put it... which somehow means that the people are not yet totally sure about the future and that the bad days of the crises are over and better days are here to stay.

Meanwhile the summer is here (not so much in Bariloche though) and argentinians are flocking to the beaches, leaving BsAs massively on holidays, maybe not yet so much to Europe or the USA as before, but travelling inside the country and to neighbouring countries like Uruguay & Brasil. Internal flights are nearly sold out and the ferry connections to Uruguay are collapsing due to the many thousands willing to reach Punta Del Este, the local Cote d'Azur... Bariloche also is packed with local tourists and mostly a young crowd. Anyway, the summer is here, January is here what August/July is in Europe and the good economic prospects allow to spend without much concerns.

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